Estimation Of Customer Default Based On Behavioural Variables
نویسنده
چکیده
The paper focuses on the estimation of customer default amoung the small and medium enterprises (SME). Based on the literature on credit scoring modelswebuild a logistic regression model which is widely used by commercial banks. Our models predicting customers’ default on their payables to suppliers are estimated on a sample of a customer portfolio of 905 SME clients. Based on the analysis the non-financial, behavioural variables estimate better customer default than the financial ratios. Our models perform weaker than the usual performance level of scoring models in commercial bank. This result assumes that defaulting on a payable to suppliers is an early signal of possible financial difficulties.
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